Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2026 for North Texas Home Sellers? — Kallie Spencer's Expert Guide
Will mortgage rates go down in 2026 for North Texas home sellers?
You might see a small dip, but most experts aren't expecting a dramatic drop. For sellers in Southlake, Keller, Haslet, Alliance, Northlake, and greater Fort Worth, the real advantage in 2026 will come from strategy—not waiting on the perfect interest rate. Here's what the latest data and local trends mean for your sale.
The Short Answer
Mortgage rates are projected to stay somewhere between 5.8% and 6.4% by late 2026 depending on the economy. That means a dramatic return to the ultra-low 3–4% pandemic-era rates is unlikely, but a modest decline is possible.
For you as a seller, that means:
- Buyer affordability may improve slightly.
- Competition could increase if rates dip.
- But pricing, presentation, and timing will matter more than rate guesses.
Now let's break down what's really driving mortgage rates, how 2026 could play out, and how to plan your sale strategically.
1. What Experts Predict for 2026 Mortgage Rates
Current rates hover near 6.25% (Bankrate's October 29, 2025 survey). That's the lowest in nearly a year, and the trend heading into 2026 is stability—not dramatic movement.
Here's what leading forecasts say for next year:
Fannie Mae Forecast
- Predicts rates drifting toward ≈ 5.9% by late 2026
- This assumes inflation eases and the economy cools slightly
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
- Projects ≈ 6.4% by end of 2026
- A more conservative outlook, suggesting rates stay range-bound
Freddie Mac & general analyst commentary
- Expect "sideways movement"
- No major catalyst for a rate crash
Economic factors influencing 2026 rates
Mortgage rates follow long-term bond yields—especially the 10-year Treasury—more closely than the Federal Reserve. When inflation is sticky or global markets are uncertain, mortgage rates stay elevated even if the Fed cuts short-term rates.
Bottom Line: Most projections converge around 5.8%–6.4%, and none predict a return to historic lows.
2. What This Means for North Texas Sellers
Even small changes in mortgage rates can shift buyer behavior in our region, especially in North Fort Worth, Alliance, Haslet, 76052/76131, and Northlake where buyers are more payment-focused.
If rates DROP slightly…
Buyers gain:
- +$25K–$50K in purchasing power
- Higher confidence
- Ability to stretch into the next price band ($450K → $500K, $600K → $650K)
Sellers gain:
- More showings
- Stronger offers
- Less pressure to offer concessions
If rates HOLD steady…
This is the most likely scenario.
Buyers remain payment-sensitive but predictable.
Sellers will need:
- Clear pricing
- Strong presentation
- Thoughtful negotiation strategy
- Occasional incentives (e.g., buydown credit)
If rates RISE again…
Buyer affordability declines 8–12% quickly.
Sellers may see:
- Longer days on market
- More concession requests
- More competition from new construction
- The need to adjust pricing or offer credits sooner
3. Payment Examples Buyers Will Be Looking At in 2026
To understand buyer psychology, follow their monthly payment—not just the mortgage rate. Here's what buyers see on a $475K loan (approx. 5% down on a $500K home):
| Rate | Monthly Payment (P&I) | Buyer Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| 5.75% | ≈ $2,771/mo | "We can stretch into our preferred neighborhood." |
| 6.25% | ≈ $2,922/mo | "Let's shop carefully — this must feel worth it." |
| 6.75% | ≈ $3,082/mo | "We may need concessions, a buydown, or to drop price range." |
Even small shifts matter in Keller, Haslet, Northlake, and Alliance.
This is why mortgage rates—your primary keyword—remain a driving factor in how 2026 will unfold.
4. Three 2026 Market Scenarios: What Sellers Should Prepare For
Below are the three most realistic outcomes and what they mean for your listing strategy.
Scenario A — Optimistic (Rates Fall to 5.6%–5.9%)
Likelihood: Possible, but not guaranteed.Benefits for sellers:
- Strong showing activity
- More qualified buyers
- Faster offers
- Less need for rate buydowns or concessions
- Easier to sell in higher price points (Southlake, Westlake, Trophy Club)
How to position your home:
- List early if rates start trending down
- Lean into move-up markets
- Maximize presentation to capture early momentum
Scenario B — Moderate (Rates Hold Between 6.0%–6.4%)
Likelihood: Most likely.Benefits and pressures:
- Market stays stable
- No affordability breakthroughs
- Buyers move methodically
- Homes priced correctly still sell quickly
- Homes priced optimistically stall
How to position your home:
- Price within 1–2% of true market value
- Prep your home thoroughly: curb appeal, updates, decluttering, pro photos
- Consider small incentives (closing costs, 1-0 buydown)
Scenario C — Pessimistic (Rates Rise to 6.6%–7.1%)
Likelihood: Lower, but possible if inflation increases.Challenges for sellers:
- Buyer pool shrinks
- DOM rises
- Builders regain the advantage
- More buyers request concessions
- Sellers must re-evaluate pricing quickly
How to position your home:
- Time the market early if you're risk-averse
- Offer meaningful incentives upfront
- Strengthen marketing to highlight lifestyle value and upgrades
- Stay flexible on terms
5. What North Texas Micro-Markets Will Feel in 2026
Southlake & Westlake
High-end buyers are less rate-sensitive, but they demand quality.
Small rate dips mean big changes in payment.
Luxury listings must be priced crisply or they linger.
Keller & Trophy Club
Family buyers returning for Q1–Q2 relocation cycles.
Prices flattening; buyers comparing value intensely.
Alliance & Haslet (76052 / 76131)
Expect the sharpest reaction to payment changes.
Builders will remain aggressive with buydowns and credits.
Northlake / Pecan Square / Canyon Falls
New construction will heavily influence pricing.
Sellers need to compete with incentives or standout upgrades.
6. Kallie Spencer's Expert Guidance for 2026 Sellers
Here's what I tell sellers across North Texas:
You can't wait for perfect mortgage rates. But you can prepare for any scenario.
You should list when:
- You have equity
- You have a strong home to present
- Your lifestyle or financial goals require movement
- Competition is manageable
- You have a clear strategy
If rates drop, you sell into a busier market.
If rates stay stable, your pricing and preparation carry you.
If rates rise, listing earlier protects your equity.
7. The Strategy That Wins No Matter What Rates Do
Your advantage as a seller comes from:
- Accurate pricing
- Professional presentation
- Understanding buyer psychology
- Using incentives wisely (not excessively)
- Monitoring local inventory weekly
- Partnering with a knowledgeable local expert
Rates matter—but strategy wins the sale.
Ready to Plan Your 2026 Sale?
If you're planning to sell in 2026, you don't need to predict mortgage rates. You need a clear, data-backed pricing and timing plan.
Contact Kallie Spencer, Broker/Owner at Ritchey Realty, for a customized seller strategy based on:
- Expected 2026 mortgage rate trends
- Inventory projections
- Your home's competitive position
- Buyer affordability in your price point
- Q1 and Q2 timing advantages
You'll have clarity and confidence instead of guessing.
